With U.S. herd at lowest level in 75 years, could cattle cycle be ready to change?
Feb. 5, 2026
By Mary Hightower
University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Fast Facts
- Mitchell: Cattle herd numbers set to rebuild
- Ranchers see solid prices for calves
(610 words)
Download file photo of Mitchell, chart of US cattle numbers since 1970
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — After a multi-year slide to its lowest level in 75 years, the number of cattle in the United States may finally be poised for an upturn, said James Mitchell, extension livestock economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
As of Jan. 1, there were 86.2 million head of cattle in the U.S., slightly below the 86.5 million head on the same day in 2025, according to the January edition of U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Cattle Report, a twice-a-year publication that will come out again in July.
By comparison, U.S. cattle numbers peaked in 1975 at 132 million head. The last time the herd exceeded 100 million head was in 1997, according to USDA.
Last year, analysts thought the 2025 herd numbers were rock bottom.
“Beef cow slaughter was down 18 percent last year, and so we thought, ‘OK, we could see a half a percent increase in beef cow numbers’,” Mitchell said on Tuesday. “Turns out beef cows are down another 1 percent.”
This year’s numbers are the lowest total cattle inventory since 1951 and continue the decline that began in 2019.
Running in cycles
Historically, the cycles of high and low cattle herd numbers generally run eight to 12 years, Mitchell said. While the industry is running low herd numbers, prices are quite strong.
“Most analysts are expecting that number this year is the low point” in the cycle, he said. “That would not be confirmed until we get that January 2027 number — and that number would have to be higher.”
“I think producers are just looking at what the calf market is doing, and a lot of them are just quite happy with selling those calves instead of keeping some of them,” he said. “Profitability was really, really, really good last year, as good a time as we’ve ever seen.”
Factoring into the lower numbers are fears about resurgence of the New World Screwworm, a nightmarish parasite of cattle, deer and other warm-blooded animals, including humans. The parasite had been confined to Central America but has been reported as far north as Mexico in September 2025.
In January, USDA announced it was initiating dispersal of sterile New World Screwworm flies in an area that stretches 50 miles into Texas, in an effort to halt northward movement of the insect.
Because of that, Mexican beef imports were paused, Mitchell said, leading to feedlots in Texas that were virtually empty due to tight domestic supplies.
Other factors that have constrained herd growth include higher interest rates, which discourage investment in expansion, as well as persistent drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 34 percent of the nation’s cattle inventory is within an area of drought.
Despite those factors, for the U.S. herd size, there may be nowhere to go but up.
It “looks like we’re going start to rebuild the herd in 2026,” Mitchell said.
Global markets
Global markets for beef are changing, Mitchell said. In 2017, China was the world’s largest beef importer, and the country had been a top five market for U.S. beef. However, in March 2025, China did not renew registrations for U.S. meat exporters, closing the market to U.S. beef. Brazil and Australia are among the exporters putting beef on Chinese tables.
Even so, U.S. “cow numbers are as tight as they’ve been since the 60s, and so we just don’t have much beef that can be exported right now,” he said.
Lean meat for hamburger
Ten to 12 percent of beef consumed in the U.S. is imported. Most of that is “lean trimmings from Mexico, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Brazil that is used to blend into hamburger,” Mitchell said. In the last couple of years, ground beef from fed steers and heifers have “quite a bit of fat, and so we’d need more lean product to blend.”
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About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land-grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Media contact:
Nick Kordsmeier
University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
nkordsme@uada.edu