HOLIDAYS: Turkey prices trending higher as holidays approach
Nov. 17, 2025
By Mary Hightower
U of A System Division of Agriculture
Fast facts
- Frozen whole hens running 82 percent higher than last year
- Consumer demand for turkey trickles downward
(468 words)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Wholesale turkey prices were trending higher as the holidays approach, said James Mitchell, extension livestock economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
The price rise is occurring against a backdrop that includes a weakening of long-term consumer demand and a seasonal rise of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
“Wholesale prices for frozen whole hens — 8-16 pounds — averaged $1.73 per pound or 82 percent higher compared to the same week last year,” Mitchell said. “Wholesale skinless breast prices averaged $7.22 per pound last week or 265 percent higher compared to last year.
“Ultimately, very little of the increase in wholesale prices will be passed to consumers because most of that production is forward contracted for the holiday season. Some pass-through is expected for spot market purchases, a small share of the overall holiday market.” he said. “The industry is also struggling with the longer-term issue with fourth quarter per capita turkey consumption trending down by seven-tenths of a pound over the last 10 years. This trend was accelerated by COIVD and smaller family gatherings”
Cases of bird flu in commercial and backyard flocks tend to rise in spring and fall, coinciding with the migration of wildfowl.
As of Nov. 7, the Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service said there had been 67 confirmed detections in flocks, affecting 3.72 million birds. Thirty-two of the flocks were commercial, located in California, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Utah and Washington. AI was detected in commercial turkey flocks in Michigan and North and South Dakota.
As of Tuesday, there have been no avian influenza detections in Arkansas, as poultry experts with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture advise flock owners to redouble biosecurity efforts.
For scale, there are more than 378.5 million egg-laying chickens in the United States. In 2023, more than 9.4 billion broiler chickens and 218 million turkeys were processed in the United States, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
“Turkeys we eat for Thanksgiving are typically hens, harvested starting late summer, early fall and are in cold storage” — which is usually before HPAI cases rise, said Jada Thompson, an economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
Thompson said that ultimately, the retailers set the prices on turkeys.
“The retailers may choose to let turkey be a loss leader,” she said. Price decisions by the retailers, shifting turkey supplies and the number of birds in cold storage to meet holiday demand, “all may lead to more stable prices than some might think considering the current HPAI detections.
Thompson said total cold storage numbers for the year were down 9 percent through August, which may not fully reflect all the holiday turkey processing, but in general, “there is a lot of incentive to keep turkey as the prime focus of Thanksgiving and firms are going to prioritize supplying birds for the holidays.”
To learn more about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Media contact: Mary Hightower
mhightower@uada.edu