Arkansas net farm income projected to decline by 8 percent in 2025
“All crop margins are still negative for 2026, according to our crop enterprise budgets, but soybeans and corn appear to show the lowest likely loss.” — Hunter Biram
By Mary Hightower
U of A System Division of Agriculture
Fast facts
- Net farm income to decline on lower crop receipts
- Outlook for soybeans brighter in 2026
(1,102 words)
UNDATED — Arkansas net farm income is projected to decline 8 percent to $2.91 billion in 2025, however, there are some signs that 2026 might see higher soybean and corn prices and the promise of ad hoc assistance, economists said.
The Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center, or RaFF, working with agricultural economists from the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said in its “Fall 2025 Farm Income Outlook for Arkansas” that the state’s 2025 net farm income is expected to drop when compared to 2024 levels.
In 2025:
- Total cash receipts would decline $0.39 billion, or 3 percent,
- Crop receipts would decline $0.62 billion or 13 percent.
Additionally, a $0.21 billion, or 18 percent, decrease in farm-related receipts would be partially offset by the $0.43 billion, or 5 percent, increase in livestock receipts.
The projected 8 percent reduction in Arkansas net farm income is significantly lower than the expected 41 percent increase in U.S. net farm income projected by Mizzou’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
Other key findings from the report include:
Crop receipts will decline by $0.62 billion in 2025, reflecting lower-than-anticipated total planted acres caused by a rainy spring preventing corn, rice, and soybeans from being planted. Economists projected a further decrease in crop receipts in 2026.
“There will likely be reductions in rice and cotton acreage, with acreage shifting more into corn and soybeans on more favorable margins,” Biram said. “All crop margins are still negative for 2026, according to our crop enterprise budgets, but soybeans and corn appear to show the lowest likely loss.”
When looking at production expenses and rent at 25 percent crop share, Biram said soybeans are “actually showing a near breakeven potential.”
Among 2025 crops, peanuts are offering growers a tiny ray of light.
“Peanuts are showing a healthy positive return — more than $100 per acre — but account for less than 1 percent of total planted acreage across the state and will not significantly impact total state-level net farm income,” Biram said.
Government payments
The losses in crop receipts will be partially offset by a $0.42 billion increase in direct government payments in 2025, primarily from the supplemental and ad hoc economic assistance.
“This is about a $350 million downward revision largely driven by less-than-anticipated payments received from the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program and Emergency Livestock Relief Program,” Biram said. “However, with this decline in supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance in 2025 comes at a nearly $300 million projected increase in government assistance in 2026 via the Price Loss Coverage program due to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
Livestock sector
Livestock receipts will increase by $0.43 billion in 2025, supported by higher egg prices, which are expected to drop 24 percent in 2026. The anticipated egg price drop is “mainly due to easing pressure from the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak, returning prices to preoutbreak levels,” the report said.
However, in a separate analysis, Division of Agriculture economists Jada Thompson and James Mitchell, said the avian flu, or HPAI, impact on egg prices is up in the air.
“Cash receipt estimates from eggs are lower in 2026 with declining egg prices, but that estimate should be interpreted with caution because there is still a lot of uncertainty from year to year on losses due to HPAI,” Mitchell said.
“We have some moderate cases coming in this year which may indicate another hard HPAI year, but these are still early signs and we don’t know the full effects,” Thompson said. “Egg prices are following very consistent seasonal patterns, where winter affects egg production coupled with seasonal holiday demand.
"Layer HPAI on top of this and if case counts rise dramatically, we may see egg prices climb,” she said. “If HPAI moderates, or has fewer cases, then we will not see the historic prices of last year.
“The short answer is that egg prices will be dependent on supply disruptions during the peak demand season,” Thompson said. “We all hope that these are minimized, but we’re keeping an eye on case counts and supply levels.”
Other livestock receipts are expected to decline by 2 percent, the report noted.
Mitchell said, “livestock receipts are down on lower cattle sales and higher prices with broader herd rebuilding in the cattle sector expected to in 2026.”
The Fall 2025 Farm Income Outlook for Arkansas is co-published by the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture and RaFF at the University of Missouri. RaFF collaborates with several states to develop farm income projections with local expertise, offering additional coverage of key Midwestern and Southern regions.
“The information for 2025 and 2026 in RaFF’s Farm Income Outlooks is intended to inform policymakers, industry analysts, and agricultural practitioners about the expected profitability of the local agricultural sector and its main drivers. Our state-level projections complement and add granularity to national projections by the USDA and FAPRI-MU, providing valuable insights on local agricultural trends,” said RaFF Director Alejandro Plastina. “When planning for 2026, it is important for farmers and ranchers to take action to secure sufficient liquidity to operate under sustained tight margins, barring unanticipated new government payments or pent-up demand for agricultural commodities.”
The full report and supporting data tables are available for download at https://raff.missouri.edu/farm-income.
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension
Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture
research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture,
visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
# # #
Media contact: Mary Hightower
mhightower@uada.edu