Increased corn acres driving higher fertilizer prices; farmers may see fuel price relief
The Mid-South — Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee — “are following the national corn acreage trend with a sizeable increase in 2025,” Stiles said. “These four states will add a combined 670,000 corn acres this year, up 31 percent from a year ago. Arkansas is expected to increase its corn acres 210,000 acres to 710,000 acres.”
By Mary Hightower
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
April 30, 2025
Fast facts
- Arkansas follows national trend toward more corn acres
- Tariff situation to have less impact on nitrogen prices
- Since Jan. 1, liquid nitrogen up 37 percent; urea up 33 percent
(681 words)
(Newsrooms: With charts)
JONESBORO, Ark. — An increase in fertilizer prices in the Mid-South is driven more by a demand from the increase in corn acres than tariffs, economists with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture said.
U.S. corn acres are expected to increase 4.73 million acres this year, according to the Prospective Plantings survey from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
“That equates to a total of 95.3 million acres, which would be the highest since 2013 and third highest since the 1940s,” said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
The Mid-South — Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee — “are following the national corn acreage trend with a sizeable increase in 2025,” Stiles said. “These four states will add a combined 670,000 corn acres this year, up 31 percent from a year ago. Arkansas is expected to increase its corn acres 210,000 acres to 710,000 acres.”
The Division of Agriculture tracks weekly trends in wholesale fertilizer prices for the Mid-South region, including urea, UAN or urea ammonium nitrate; DAP or diammonium phosphate; and potash. They supply three critical nutrients for plants: nitrogen, potassium and phosphorus.
Historically, fertilizer prices tend to increase with demand as planting season gets underway from early February through mid-May.
However, “we've noticed urea fertilizer prices have been on a steady climb since the start of the year,” Stiles said. “In the Mid-South region, urea has increased $122 per ton or 33 percent since Jan. 1.
“UAN, or liquid nitrogen, has been on a similar path, increasing $103 per ton or 37 percent,” he said. “Compared to this time last year, urea is up $102 per ton or 26 percent and UAN is up $63 per ton or 20 percent.”
Stiles said DAP and potash “have been on a slower path higher this year and actually fairly quiet for the last three to four weeks. However, prices for both rose 2 to 3 percent last week.
“It's time,” he said. “Demand is picking up.”
“As we're trying to pinpoint what's driving nitrogen, I'd say it has little to do with the trade environment right now,” he said.
“Of all the major fertilizers, import tariffs will have less of an impact on nitrogen. For one, the U.S. is the world’s fourth-largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers,” Stiles said. “However, the U.S. does import some nitrogen from Trinidad and Tobago and Canada.”
Imports have accounted for 6 to 13 percent of total nitrogen consumption in the U.S. since 2020.
Other factors
As with any commodity, there are multiple factors that act on pricing.
Stiles said that according to Monday’s Crop Progress report, “it's notable that the planting progress for all the major crops is still ahead of the five-year average pace.”
For Arkansas, corn planting was 80 percent complete by April 27; rice planting at 68 percent. Soybean planting was 45 percent complete and cotton was 6 percent planted.
“So, demand is picking up, terminal supplies of fertilizer are tightening a bit with some river-related challenges lately,” Stiles said. “High water levels triggered some towing restrictions over the past two weeks on the Mississippi River. There was daytime-only navigation for barge traffic between Memphis and Vicksburg, Mississippi, plus a reduction in the number of barges that could be towed as well as reduced loading drafts.”
As of April 24, the Mississippi at Memphis, Tennessee, was just above 36 feet — minor flood stage — but was forecast to fall below 28 feet by April 29.
“The Mississippi River is falling and these restrictions mentioned should be a short-term issue,” Stiles said.
Crude prices
West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading near four-year lows.
During the first week of April, WTI traded as low as $55.12 per barrel—the lowest level since February 2021.
“Crude has since recovered above $60 and has generally traded in a range of $61.50 to $64.90 this week,” Riley Smith said in his Morning Coffee and Ag Markets article on Monday. “This could potentially signal some relief ahead in fuel costs, offering a positive outlook for producers as planting season continues.”
Smith is an extension economics program associate with the Division of Agriculture.
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas
System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment)
without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital
or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other
legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Media contact: Mary Hightower
mhightower@uada.edu