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By Ryan McGeeney U of A System Division of AgricultureJuly 14, 2017
(663 words)(Download this story in MS Word here.)
LITTLE ROCK — Arkansas wheat production is experiencing a slight uptick from its long-term
low, according to a July 12 crop production report from the U.S Department of Agriculture’s
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The forecast for state’s 2017 winter
wheat production jumped to 7.17 million bushels — 18 percent higher than the June
forecast and 15 percent above last year’s actual production. The report also forecast
a yield of 55 bushels per acre, with about 130,000 acres for harvest.
The state’s wheat surge comes as forecast production for the United States dropped
by about 23 percent from 2016, according to both the NASS report and the USDA’s World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
The report projected U.S. wheat production at 1.76 billion bushels for the 2017-2018
production cycle, a decrease of about 550 million bushels from the previous year.
The report also lowered exports by 25 million bushels to 975 million, and feed and
residual usage was reduced by 20 million to 150 million bushels for residual usage,
based on a lower production outlook for durum and other spring wheat.
Globally, wheat supplies were largely unchanged, as lower production in the United
States, Australia, China and the European Union were offset by increased production
in Turkey and China, the latter having experienced record production during the 2016-2017
production cycle, according to the report.
Scott Stiles, economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture,
said that grain traders would likely view the WASDE report with some skepticism, because
it may not reflect what was “being reported on the ground.”
“U.S. corn and soybean condition ratings are on the decline,” Stiles said. “(Wednesday’s)
report held the U.S corn and soybean yields steady month-to-month at 170.7 and 48
bushels per acre respectively. Those are trend yields that USDA has been using since
May, in its' first release of the 2017/18 supply/demand tables.
“Given the deteriorating crop conditions in the northern Plains area of the United
States — primarily the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska — most would agree today that
yields this year will come in below trend, particularly for corn. Soybeans have more
time, but this is a critical yield-determining month for corn,” he said.
Stiles said that the next WASDE report, scheduled for publication Aug. 10, will incorporate
survey-based production forecasts from NASS, which he expects to provide a more accurate
picture of crop yields.
The WASDE report also provided global perspective on two other commodities important
to Arkansas — rice and cotton.
The USDA lowered its estimation of U.S. rice supplies by about 9.5 million hundredweight
to approximately 261.6 million hundredweight, or about 13 million tons. Production
also decreased, in both long-grain and medium-grain rice, and the report largely attributes
the decrease to the spring flooding in Northeast Arkansas and the bootheel area of
Missouri, which reduced total rice acreage by about 123,000 acres.
“Lower rice production was expected in Wednesday’s report,” Stiles said. “This was
based on the fact that the USDA would be adopting the June 30 acreage data. On the
surface, a lower production estimate should be supportive to prices. However, rice
futures have lost about 17 cents per bushel in the wake of the report.”
The report estimated that global rice supplies increased by about 1.9 million tons
overall, balancing the reduced production in the United States with increases in India
Across the United States, projected cotton production dropped by 200,000 bales over
the last month to approximately 19 million, according to the report. Globally, estimated
cotton production increased by about 636,000 bales to more than 115.3 million bales,
mainly due to increased production in India. Global consumption of cotton is forecast
to increase by 500,000 bales to more than 117 million bales during the 2017-2018 cycle.
In a June 30 report, NASS projected Arkansas cotton acreage to have increased from
380,000 acres in 2016 to 440,000 acres in 2017.
To learn about Arkansas row crop production, contact your local Cooperative Extension
Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen
agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption
of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative
Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work
within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension
and Research programs to all eligible persons without regard to race, color, sex,
gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital
or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and
is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.
# # #
Media Contact: Mary HightowerDir. of Communication ServicesU of A System Division of AgricultureCooperative Extension Service(501) email@example.com