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July 1, 2014
JONESBORO, Ark. — Bears were running amok Tuesday through the corn, wheat, cotton
and soybean markets in the wake of the annual Acreage Report from the National Agricultural
“The shock and awe today came in the soybean market,” said Scott Stiles, extension
economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “Most market
watchers have been waiting for the soybean market to fall apart. It finally happened.”
The November soybean futures contract lost 70 cents and had its lowest close since
the end of February.
“Today also marked the biggest one-day drop in the November ’14 contract since it
started trading back in 2010,” he said. “I think the key reason was the Acreage Report.”
Before the report, the average guess on U.S. soybean acres was 82.2 million acres,
with the actual acres coming in at 84.8 million.
“When you consider the March 31 planting intentions were 81.5 million acres, today’s
number is a significant jump,” Stiles said.
Only rice avoided the bears completely, “surviving the day with small gains in the
new crop futures contracts,” he said.
Soybean and corn crops are rated in very good condition in the Midwest, with the U.S.
“soybean ratings overall the second highest on record for this point in the growing
season,” Stiles said. “For soybean and corn prices to turn higher, crop conditions
will need to deteriorate as lot in these key states.”
Rice, corn acres higher in Arkansas
In Arkansas, the planted acres for both rice and corn exceeded the predictions of
the March Prospective Plantings Report.
“Hitting the early projection of 1.5 million acres of rice was expected," said Jarrod
Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the University of Arkansas System Division of
Agriculture. "I was a little surprised that the acres bumped up 50,000 over early estimates,”
he said, adding said “But then again, growers were still planting on June 20."
Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist, said the Acreage Report’s 3.4 million figure
was in line with expectations, however, “harvested acreage may take a hit with the
current weather pattern.”
A wet, cold spring kept many farmers out of the fields at planting time and abundant
summer rain at the end of June helped submerge what crops had been planted.
Stiles said August would be a key month for the soybean markets. Cotton’s future would
likely be dictated by Texas weather.
“Any return to extended drought in the High Plains could spark rallies in December
cotton futures,” he said. “Stay tuned.”
For more information about crop production, visit www.uaex.uada.edu, http://Arkansascrops.com or contact your county extension office.
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers its programs to all
eligible persons regardless of race, color, national origin, religion, gender, age,
disability, marital or veteran status, or any other legally protected status, and
is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.
By Mary HightowerU of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Media Contact: Mary HightowerDir. of Communication ServicesU of A Division of AgricultureCooperative Extension Service(501) firstname.lastname@example.org