WASDE hands corn prices another blow
Oct. 13, 2026
By Mary Hightower
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture
Fast Facts
- USDA lowers 2026 farm price by 10 cents per bushel
- Final 2026 USDA yield estimates due out in January
(565 words)
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JONESBORO, Ark. — October’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report dealt corn prices another blow, but there’s still a lot of U.S. corn left to harvest.
Industry analysts were looking toward the Oct. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, after the Grain Stocks Report from the previous week showed ending stocks higher.
“To say Friday’s report was not friendly to the corn market is an understatement,” said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
“Ahead of last Friday's report, traders and analysts were expecting a lower U.S. average
yield and production estimate this month,” he said.
Stiles said the actual numbers came in higher: 181.2 bushels per acre for the yield,
compared to 178.5 in September, and 16.034 billion bushels for production, compared
to 15.8 billion in September.
“Both numbers were at the upper end of pre-report estimates,” Stiles said. “The 2.7 bushel month-to-month yield increase was the real surprise there.”
This month, the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased corn yields in 16 states. NASS was predicting a 193-bushel-per-acre yield in Arkansas, up from last year’s 182 bushels and above its September forecast of 188 bushels per acre.
One of the most notable changes was an 11-bushel-per-acre increase in Nebraska that added almost 106 million bushels to production. There were sizeable yield increases this month in Michigan, Ohio, and South Dakota. However, NASS left Iowa's yield unchanged at a record 219 bushels per acre, despite excessive rain over the past month.
Prices decline
Given the increase in stocks, USDA lowered its season average farm price for the 2026 crop by 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel. However, the prices were up from last year's $4.16 per bushel and the highest since 2022.
Stiles said that immediately following the report, December corn futures were down the 30-cent daily limit for a brief time. The “daily limit” refers to the maximum price movement allowed in a single trading day for a commodity from the prior day’s ending price or settlement.
“That’s proof the headline numbers were a shock,” he said. “December 2026 corn futures closed 20 ½ cents lower for the day at $4.79 ¾; the lowest trade for the contract since Aug. 14.”
“Bottom line, the report was particularly bearish because traders had anticipated a lower yield and smaller crop,” he said. “There were other factors as well. The corn market had so many traders leaning to the ‘long’ or buy-side of the market going into the report. Many of the long speculators in the corn market were forced to give up and get out.”
The managed funds had been building a "long" position in the corn market since the first week of July. Since that time, corn prices had increased over $1 per bushel. So, the long funds had a sizeable profit to protect, Stiles explained.
The managed funds and speculators watch the technical aspects of the market very closely. When Friday’s prices fell through a key support level — which had been $4.95 for the December contract, “that was a clear signal prices were headed lower. It created a stampede for the exits,” Stiles said.
Ain’t over ‘til it’s over
“Keep in mind, the October yield estimates are not final by any stretch,” he said. “The vast majority of corn harvest is still ahead in many of the key Corn Belt states. USDA will provide its final yield and production estimate in January.”
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram. To learn more about the UADA, visit uada.edu. To learn more about ag and food research in Arkansas, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station at aaes.uada.edu.
About UADA
The University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, UADA conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
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