Drought, urea prices prompt planting uncertainty
March 25, 2026
By Mary Hightower
University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Fast Facts
- USDA’s Prospective Plantings report due out March 31
- Planting underway in Arkansas
- Hardke: Could Arkansas see fewest rice acres since 1977?
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JONESBORO, Ark. — In the week ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s “Prospective Plantings” report, farmers are getting seed in the ground amid uncertainty created by drought and input prices.
The report — due out March 31 — provides an early-season outlook for farmers’ plans for their acreage. Planting season in Arkansas was just finding its legs in the second-to-last week of March. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on Monday reported that Arkansas farmers had 9 percent of corn planted, with rice and soybeans each at 1 percent.
“The ‘Prospective Plantings’ report is always a closely followed grower survey,” Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said on Tuesday.
“Most are anticipating a significant increase in soybeans this year,” he said.
Input costs
Uncertainty in the Middle East over shipments of petroleum products has increased prices for the fertilizer urea, as well as the diesel that keeps farm equipment moving and irrigation pumping. Corn and rice need urea. Soybeans don’t.
“Prior to March 1, I would have thought corn acres to be flat; maybe slightly lower,” Stiles said. “However, nitrogen costs have jumped about 30 percent this month. This hasn't helped the margins for cotton and rice either.”
“With or without the Mideast conflict, it appeared rice and cotton acres were headed down to historically low levels anyway,” he said.
Are farmers talking about diesel and urea prices?
"That is all they are talking about,” said Kevin Lawson, Faulkner County extension agent for the Division of Agriculture. “It is the hot topic with row crop and forage producers. Urea hit $800 a ton at our co-op last week. Our rice acres will be way down this year.”
From bad to worse
There is no part of Arkansas that is not in drought, according to the March 19 map from the Drought Monitor. The most intense category — exceptional drought — covers 2.82 percent of the state in counties in northeast Arkansas. The next most intense category of drought, labeled “extreme,” covers nearly a third of the state.
Even so, “there has been a lot of farming activity since the end of last week,” said Jeremy Ross, soybean extension agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “I don’t have a very good feeling starting out the year with most of the state in a drought.”
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Outlook forecasts a 70-80 percent probability of above-normal temperatures and a 40-50 percent chance of above-normal precipitation through April 6.
“The long-term forecast predicts warmer than normal temperatures, and precipitation is normal to below normal,” Ross said. “Farmers that use above ground irrigation are already behind. Many reservoirs have lower-than-normal levels without much rainfall this winter. It could get ugly this summer if they run out of water to irrigate.”
Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said, “The conversation over water is real given drought conditions.
“The long-term forecast does show some rain chances as we move into April, but we’re going to have to see them happen to believe them,” he said. “If you’re in an area that has had virtually no rainfall to fill reservoirs this winter, how can you plant rice acres on time just hoping that rains eventually show up to provide irrigation water?”
For Arkansas’ rice crop, “things are going from bad to worse, but somehow that description doesn’t do the situation justice,” Hardke said. “I feel like we have been grasping at straws trying to guesstimate how acres would shake out, and now with these latest rounds of issues, it seems last-minute decisions are being made amid the tailspin.
“The question for rice acres has become, ‘just how low will acres go?’” he said. “Achieving 1 million acres is off the table, so that will be the first time since 1983 that’s happened. But now it’s a question of whether we’ll even see 900,000 acres. 1977 was the last time we didn’t get there.
“This is a historic change for the Arkansas rice industry,” Hardke said. “Even with the elevated urea and diesel prices, corn and even cotton still look far superior to rice. Soybean leads the way as having the best current outlook.”
Cotton and peanut planting are still weeks away, but Zachary Treadway, extension agronomist for both crops, said, “Tthe National Cotton Council survey has already come back, and it predicts historic lows for cotton acreage.
“If the predicted acreage comes to fruition, we could be looking at the second-lowest recorded acreage of all time,” he said. With prices lingering in the 60s in cents-per-pound and “rising nitrogen prices rising, “I do not expect a positive change to that prospective number.”
There is one bright spot, Treadway said.
“I do have hope for an increase in peanut acreage,” he said. “I foresee some cotton ground going into peanuts, and especially since that crop doesn’t need supplemental nitrogen.”
Treadway said that change might mean somewhere around 50,000 acres for peanuts in Arkansas, but growers are still penciling out the figures.
Lawson said Faulkner County farmers started planting corn on March 20.
“Most producers are trying to get non-irrigated fields planted now, but a few are under pivots,” he said. “I talked to one producer yesterday that will be planting our corn hybrid trial, and he said he thought it was too dry and was going to wait until after a rain to plant his corn.
“Nobody has really talked about planting rice yet, but I expect a few more corn acres to go in this week,” Lawson said.
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit uada.edu. To learn more about ag and food research in Arkansas, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station at aaes.uada.edu.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land-grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Media contact:
Nick Kordsmeier
nkordsme@uada.edu