Study: Mississippi River's 2022 low water levels reduced soybean crop value by up to $293 million
Their investigation started with a simple question: “what would soybean prices have been in 2022-2024 if the Mississippi River wasn’t low?”
By Mary Hightower
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
June 16, 2025
Fast facts
- Study findings can help farmers make better contract decisions
- Research “put numbers behind a very real and very visible problem.”
(942 words)
(newsrooms: with art of Mitchell, Biram )
UNDATED — Effects from record low levels on the Mississippi River could’ve reduced the value of Arkansas’ 2022 soybean crop up to $293 million, according to research by two agricultural economists with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
James Mitchell and Hunter Biram’s findings are in “The effects of extreme weather on rural transportation infrastructure and crop prices along the Lower Mississippi River,” published in the journal Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy.
Their investigation started with a simple question: “what would soybean prices have been in 2022-2024 if the Mississippi River wasn’t low?”
In 2022 and 2023, the Lower Mississippi River reached historic lows. In October 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Memphis stream gauge read minus 12.0 feet. The previous year — also in October, the gauge read minus 10.8 feet.
As the water lowered, draft restrictions were issued, meaning barges had to lighten their loads in order to sit higher in the water and not hit bottom. The number of barges in tow was also reduced. Both restrictions meant less of any given commodity moving along the Mississippi, the key marine highway for the Midwest and Mid-South to get agriculture products to the Port of New Orleans for export.
Starved for rain in its upper reaches, the river got so low during those two years, it was not navigable at times.
And there was a three-peat. In late September 2024, the river level fell to minus 10 feet. In the past 10 years, the Mississippi River has fallen below the established zero level during harvest — between Aug. 1-Nov. 30 — seven times.
“We were getting a lot of calls about this issue from local producers, stakeholder groups, and policymakers,” said Mitchell, the article’s corresponding author. “It wasn’t just a regional concern; there were major news outlets featuring stories on how low Mississippi River levels had become in the fall and the disruptions it was causing to river transportation.
“What really stood out to us was how often this was happening, three years in a row, and always at harvest when soybean sales are at their peak,” Mitchell said. “Everyone kept asking the same question: ‘What’s the cost to Arkansas producers when the river is low?’ We realized there was an opportunity to put numbers behind a very real and very visible problem.”
Millions in value lost
The two noted that that record-low water levels increased transportation costs and barge freight rates and that those higher transportation costs are transmitted to row crop producers through lower cash bids or a weakening of local crop basis. “Basis” refers to the difference between the local cash price of a commodity and its futures price.
The weakened basis cost millions of dollars.
For their study, Mitchell and Biram defined “low river” conditions as minus 5 feet at the Memphis river gauge. At that level, the two found that — on average — Arkansas soybean basis weakens more the closer the grain market is to the closest Mississippi River port:
- 58 cents per bushel for grain markets five miles from the closest Mississippi River port
- 29 cents per bushel for grain markets 10 miles from the closest Mississippi River port and
- 12 cents per bushel for grain markets 25 miles from the closest Mississippi River port.
It wasn’t just Arkansas being affected. A parallel weakening was noted across the river in Mississippi soybeans too, widening by $0.55 per bushel, $0.28 per bushel, and $0.11 per bushel for the same distances to grain markets.
Mitchell said the distance/basis size numbers show “the farther away you are from the river, the less of an impact there will be on prices.”
Mitchell and Biram estimate that low water levels on the Mississippi in 2022 reduced Arkansas soybean values by $17.28 million — $26.24 million, with losses potentially reaching $193.46 million — $293.80 million under the most adverse scenarios.
Biram said the study findings can clarify the conditions to trigger some market self-defense for Mid-South farmers.
“Low river levels along the lower Mississippi River matter, especially for soybean farmers in states that rely more heavily on export markets, like those in Arkansas and bordering states along the Mississippi River,” Biram said.
“Buyers currently do and farmers should be keeping an eye on river levels in order to manage the risk of lower basis and, therefore, lower prices,” Biram said. “In fact, it is never a bad idea to book a portion of production by the end of June in order to manage the risk of lower prices resulting from various factors, including low river levels along the Mississippi River.”
The study did not look at the situation for farmers in the upper Midwest.
Historical context
Mitchell said “the Mississippi River has a fascinating history, and we both went down the rabbit hole a couple of times looking into it.
“Most of the major disruptions in the past have been flood-related, like the historic flood of 1993, which also impact navigation but in a different way,” he said. “When it comes to low-water episodes, it’s actually difficult to find historical events that match what we were seeing in 2022-2024. There have been low-water events but 2022-2024 was record-setting, both in terms of severity and timing. That’s what made it stand out and why we started paying closer attention.”
Wider applications
“The broader takeaway from our research is that disruptions to inland waterways can have real, measurable economic impacts,” Mitchell said. “Whenever you’re dealing with commodities and highly seasonal trade, transportation constraints can create bottlenecks and impact prices.
“The specific context may differ, but the economic intuition and logic is transferable which was part of our contribution,” Mitchell said.
Find a short summary of the article online.
To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen
agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption
of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative
Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work
within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas
System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Media contact: Mary Hightower
mhightower@uada.edu